Days before the November 3 midterm elections, Donald Trump Jr. posted that China, Iran, Mexican cartels, and globalists want Democrats to win. All four have faced setbacks under Trump’s policies and could benefit from a Democratic-controlled Congress.
Iran wants the U.S. military campaign against it to end, and Democrats have repeatedly voted to halt it. The United States joined Israel in strikes on Iran on February 28. The House has passed war powers resolutions three times, in June, July, and September, though none has cleared the Senate.
Every Democrat voted for the September measure. Senate Democrats have forced 14 votes on the war. Democratic majorities in both chambers could advance further resolutions and seek to restrict war funding. U.S. intelligence has previously assessed that Tehran opposed a presidential candidate its leaders believed would increase tensions with the United States.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made a similar appeal directly to American voters. On September 29, it published a 25-page open letter urging Americans to reject Trump’s policies ahead of the midterms. The letter argued that Americans could live peacefully with Iran if they distanced themselves from Israel. IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi said he did not expect the letter to change the administration’s position but hoped American voters would listen.
Iran could also benefit from sanctions relief. Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018. In February 2025, he signed a memorandum directing the Treasury Department to impose maximum pressure on Iran and revoke licenses providing economic relief. By contrast, the Biden administration offered to lift nuclear-related sanctions in exchange for Iran returning to compliance with the agreement. Negotiations began in April 2021 but broke down in 2022.
Mexican cartels profit from human smuggling, making U.S. border enforcement a financial concern for them. According to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), financial institutions flagged nearly $5 billion in suspicious activity linked to human smuggling between 2023 and 2025.
FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki said many smuggling networks generate profits for larger criminal organizations, including Mexican drug cartels. Reports of suspected smuggling activity declined significantly in 2025, Trump’s first year back in office. In fiscal 2026, Border Patrol recorded 98,708 apprehensions at the southwest border, the lowest annual total in its history, compared with more than 1.8 million annually under Biden.
Congressional Democrats opposed two major expansions of immigration enforcement funding. Every Democrat voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which provided $170.7 billion for immigration and border enforcement, and against a separate $70 billion bill for ICE and Border Patrol passed in June 2026.
In February, Senate Democrats blocked Department of Homeland Security funding, triggering a partial shutdown while demanding new restrictions on immigration agents, including requirements for judicial warrants and a ban on agents wearing masks. Sen. Ruben Gallego described military strikes on suspected cartel smuggling boats as “sanctioned murder.” With ICE funding secured through the end of Trump’s term, a Democratic-controlled Congress could instead seek to restrict how agents operate.
China stands to benefit from relief from Trump’s tariffs, which congressional Democrats have repeatedly sought to overturn. In April 2025, a resolution introduced by Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden to terminate the national emergency underpinning Trump’s global tariffs, including higher reciprocal tariffs on China, failed 49-49.
In October, a similar resolution passed 51-47, with support from all Democrats and four Republicans. House Republican leaders have used procedural rules to block votes on similar measures. Democratic majorities in both chambers could pass such resolutions and send them to Trump, who could veto them.
International organizations that lost U.S. membership or funding under Trump have an interest in restoring both. Trump withdrew the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement. On January 7, 2026, he directed withdrawal from 66 international organizations.
In July 2025, the State Department and the Department of Health and Human Services formally rejected the WHO’s 2024 amendments to the International Health Regulations, which otherwise would have applied to the United States even after its withdrawal.
Trump also sharply reduced foreign assistance. In March 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the cancellation of 83 percent of USAID’s programs. On July 1, the agency ceased implementing foreign assistance, transferring its remaining programs to the State Department. Congress subsequently rescinded billions in previously approved foreign aid, with no Democrats in either chamber supporting the rescissions package.
In February 2025, Trump also signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC), of which the United States is not a member. The order followed the court’s issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Democrats have sought to reverse several of these policies. In 2025, more than 120 House Democrats backed resolutions calling for the United States to remain in the Paris Agreement. During Trump’s first term, the Democratic-controlled House passed legislation in 2019 to block his withdrawal.
On his first day in office, Biden reversed Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO and initiated the process of rejoining the Paris Agreement. A Democratic-controlled Congress could likewise seek to restore funding through appropriations legislation.
Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine whether Trump retains a Republican-controlled Congress for his final two years in office. Democrats have voted to end the war with Iran, overturn Trump’s tariffs, including those on China, and impose restrictions on immigration enforcement.
They have also opposed his foreign aid cuts and withdrawals from international organizations. Democratic majorities in both chambers would give the party control over congressional votes and appropriations on these issues, although legislation would still face Trump’s veto.
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